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Early Warning Project Forecasts Countries at Highest Risk of Committing New Mass Killing

The Early Warning Project identifies countries at greatest risk of experiencing mass killings. This heat map reflects our 2016 statistical risk assessment.

For the third year in a row, Sudan and Burma rank among the three countries at greatest risk of experiencing a new episode of state-led mass killing, according to the Early Warning Project’s annual rankings released today.

See the Early Warning Project’s blog to read the full report.

The latest assessment comes as increased violence against the Rohingya, a Muslim minority in Burma, puts them at risk of genocide. Despite Burma’s progress toward democracy, recent reports of murder, widespread rape and destruction of villages by security forces targeting Rohingya are further evidence that long-term persecution in northern Rakhine State has erupted into mass atrocities. Burma ranks number three on our annual list.

Sudan ranks number one on our list with an estimated 7% chance of a new mass killing episode. The country continues to bear many of the markers of nations that have committed mass killings in the past, including a high risk of a coup attempt or civil war that could lead the government to lash out at its own people.

Sudan, Yemen, Burma, Nigeria and Afghanistan round out the top five countries facing the greatest risk of new cases of civilian atrocities at the hands of their governments.

Explore the data on the Early Warning Project’s Statistical Risk Assessment page.