Start of Main Content


Indonesia is increasingly populous, wealthy, and politically influential, despite its history of mass atrocities. The country is currently experiencing increased political tensions, rising extremism, and an escalation of violent conflict in the Papua region, which is composed of Indonesia’s two easternmost provinces, Papua and Papua Barat. In recent years, violence between Indigenous Papuan supporters of Papua’s long-standing independence movement and the Indonesian government has intensified. Increasing activity by armed pro-independence groups has already provoked brutal responses by Indonesian security forces and could spur even harsher crackdowns. The situation is further complicated by the increasing fragmentation within Indigenous Papuan groups and rising competition between Indigenous Papuans and the growing numbers of Indonesians from other parts of the country who have moved to Papua more recently. These divisions and tensions, coupled with the struggle for independence, if not addressed, could lead to more violence against civilians.

  • This 2022 report analyzes the risk of violence and identifies potential triggering events that could lead to violence against civilians in Papua, Indonesia, in the next 12–18 months. The report concludes with recommendations on how to help prevent atrocity crimes in Indonesia.

  • Our Early Warning Project estimates the risk of a new mass killing in Indonesia over the next year.