History of Conflict in Uganda

Since its independence, Uganda has experienced violent political transitions and mass atrocities. At 80 years old, President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni has ruled the country for 38 years through his political party, the National Resistance Movement. Museveni has never spoken publicly about a political transition from his rule or given an indication that he plans to step down anytime soon. Yet, his age and growing public frustration with his rule are creating a sense that a transition must be coming. Ugandans are increasingly consumed with questions about when and how Museveni will leave office and who will lead Uganda in his wake. 

The uncertainty around what could be the country’s first political transition in nearly four decades is breeding division and fears about potential violence. Growing disputes over corruption, inadequate public services, and poor management of land and natural resources have also contributed to widespread frustration across communities. These disputes are often perceived along identity lines. In addition, clashes between state security forces (e.g., the police and military) and political opposition, protesters, and youth are common, especially around elections. Previous presidential election cycles have seen large demonstrations and were marred by violence. Given the current dynamics, there is strong reason to believe that the repression and violence that transpired during the 2021 campaign and election may recur in future elections or be worse. 

Learn more in our 2024 report, An Uncertain Future: Preventing Mass Atrocities in Uganda, which explains the factors behind three high-risk scenarios, identifies potential triggering events that could lead to violence against civilians, and proposes recommendations for how to mitigate the risk.