Since its independence, Uganda has experienced violent political transitions and mass atrocities. President Yoweri Museveni has governed Uganda for 38 years without addressing a political transition from his rule, leading to uncertainty and fears of violence. Ugandans are increasingly frustrated with the government’s ethnic favoritism, mismanagement of natural resources, human rights violations, corruption, and poor public services. Uganda has experienced multiple instances of mass atrocities in the past, and the heightened political violence during previous elections raises concerns about future presidential elections.
This October 2024 report explains the factors behind three high-risk scenarios and identifies potential triggering events that could lead to large-scale, systematic violence against civilians in Uganda in the next one to two years. The report concludes with recommendations to the Ugandan government, domestic and international civil society organizations, as well as foreign governments and other international partners on how they can help prevent mass atrocity crimes in Uganda.
PDF DownloadOur Early Warning Project estimates the risk of a new intrastate mass killing in Uganda in the next two years.
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Find information on historical cases of genocide and other atrocities.