South Sudan

Independence

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Title: From Independence to Civil War: Atrocity Prevention and US Policy toward South Sudan

Author: Jon Temin

Publication: July 2018

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The movement for independence of southern Sudan began in the 1950s when a decades-long conflict broke out between the peoples of southern Sudan and the government in Khartoum, Sudan. Over the course of the decades’ long civil war, southerners—mostly Christian and animist—fought against rule by the north and the imposition of Arabic language and culture. Two million people were killed in these wars.

The fighting ended in 2005, when the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) was signed between Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir and John Garang, who was the leader of the southern independence movement, the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA). The United States played a large role in reaching the peace agreement. The US government had long supported southern independence and the CPA gave citizens of South Sudan the opportunity to vote on whether to remain part of Sudan or to break off and become an independent country. Some feared that the separation from Sudan would reignite violence between the north and the south. Despite these fears, and with support from the international community, a peaceful vote was held in January 2011, and the citizens of South Sudan voted overwhelmingly for independence.

Ethnic Conflict and War

Two years after independence, a political crisis in the newly-formed country erupted into a large-scale civil conflict that took on an ethnic tone, as Dinka militias and supporters of South Sudan's president, Salva Kiir, battled Nuer forces loyal to former Vice President Riek Machar. The conflict ultimately involved several of the country’s 64 ethnic groups. Forces on all sides targeted civilians based on their ethnic identity—using murder, rape, assault, and torture—among other crimes.

Attempts at Peace

The regional Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) brokered a power-sharing agreement between some parties to the conflict in August 2015 with support from the United States and other members of the international community. The agreement initially fell apart in 2016, but in 2018, parties to the conflict renewed their commitments. The 2018 Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS) initiated the second attempt at a peace agreement. Parties to the conflict formed a transitional government in 2020, but the peace agreement has not been fully implemented due to a lack of political will, among other factors. Since the 2018 peace agreement, conflict at the national level has subsided, but parties to the conflict and other armed groups continue to target and kill civilians.

In 2022, the government extended its transitional leadership for an additional two years, delaying elections originally scheduled for 2023 to 2024. This election cycle would have been the first in South Sudan’s history, but in September 2024 the government again extended the transitional period, postponing it for two more years. Elections are now planned for December 2026 with the transition period now set to end in January 2027.

The Need for Justice

Punishing perpetrators and delivering justice to survivors of atrocity crimes in South Sudan is critical to breaking the cycle of conflict. Between 2013 and 2018, almost 400,000 people were killed as a result of the conflict. In the September 2018 peace agreement, South Sudan’s warring parties re-committed to a 2015 peace deal that called for establishing a Commission for Truth, Healing and Reconciliation, the Hybrid Court for South Sudan, and the Compensation and Reparations Authority. The Hybrid Court would be implemented with the African Union. However, the transitional government has yet to deliver on the promise to create these institutions and to bring justice to the people of South Sudan. Since the end of the conflict, civilians have continued to be killed in intercommunal clashes and fighting between attacks from government forces and non-state armed rebel groups. Sexual violence has been rampant, with very few perpetrators being held accountable.

Ethnic Cleansing and Fears of Genocide

Since the start of the violence in 2013, civilians have been targeted along ethnic lines. The United Nations (UN) Commission for Human Rights in South Sudan found that during the civil war this targeting of civilians based on their ethnicity amounted to ethnic cleansing. IIn November 2016, the UN Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide warned that “the signs are all there for the spread of ethnic hatred and targeting of civilians that could evolve into genocide.” He repeated this warning in February 2017. The UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) has documented a 35% increase in 2023 in people in South Sudan affected by violence. The UN has also found a rise in violence related to ethnic tensions and disputes over land and resources.

Humanitarian Crisis and Delayed Elections

The civil war and subsequent recurrent intercommunal violence have left over 2.2 million refugees and 2.2 million IDPs displaced, with climate change and food insecurity compounding the humanitarian crisis. 

According to the World Food Programme, over half of the population of South Sudan is food insecure, with the country experiencing flooding crises in some areas and severe drought in other parts. 

The outbreak of conflict in neighboring Sudan has severely affected South Sudan, with more than 800,000 people crossing the border to escape the war. The war in Sudan has disrupted the oil pipelines and oil exports, which had been South Sudan’s transitional government’s main source of revenue. However, it is also worth noting that due to corruption, most of the wealth from these experts had not been used to benefit the South Sudanese people even before the Sudan crisis. Food prices have more than doubled in some parts of the country, and according to the UN, approximately four in five households cannot afford food. Sudan and South Sudan also share a disputed territory, Abyei, which has been affected by the conflict.

Since 2022, when the South Sudan government announced it would extend the transition period and delay elections, the government has lagged in election preparation and failed to fully implement obligations in the Revitalized Peace Agreement, including on transitional justice, justice sector reform, security sector reform, and constitution-making. Civil society actors and UN officials have expressed concern about South Sudan’s readiness to implement free and fair elections and the willingness of political elites to share power. While the election postponement offers the government an opportunity to make progress on election preparation and meet its obligations under the Peace Agreement, success will require political will from the Sudan government, coordinated and transparent funding from donors, and sustained political pressure from other governments and regional institutions. 

Given this climate and South Sudan’s history of ethnic cleansing and mass atrocities, the risk of further violence remains high. A more peaceful, just, and prosperous future for South Sudan can only happen if perpetrators of mass atrocities are held accountable, victims' demands for justice are met, and future atrocities are prevented.

This page was last updated in November 2024.