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Announcements and Recent Analysis

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  • Opinion Pool Update: September 2015

    The chart below summarizes our Expert Opinion Pool’s current take on risks of new mass-killing episodes in countries about which we’ve asked them.

  • An Eyewitness Account: The Refugee Crisis

    In the 1930s, the world watched as Nazi Germany forced its beleaguered Jewish population to leave their homes. The plight of Germany’s Jews engendered sympathy, but few countries opened their doors wider to admit more of the desperate refugees. While different in many respects, today the world—and Europe in particular—is facing the largest refugee crisis since World War II.

  • Electoral Instability Increases Atrocity Risks in Bangladesh

    In January, electoral disputes between Bangladesh’s two major political parties ignited a wave of political violence familiar to the country’s recent history. By the end of February, targeted attacks by supporters of the ruling Awami League (AL) and of the Bangladesh National Party (BNP), AL’s political opposition—as well as by Bangladeshi police and paramilitary forces throughout the country—against opposition protesters killed more than 100 civilians.

  • Opinion Pool Update: July 2015

    The chart below offers an overview of our opinion pool’s current take on risks of new mass-killing episodes in countries around the world. In contrast to our statistical risk assessments, which focus exclusively on state-led mass killings, these assessments cover all possible mass killings, state-led and non-state alike. Specifically, each question asks: “Before 1 January 2016, will there be a new episode of mass killing in [this country]?”

  • India's Gujarat Faces Atrocity Risks Despite New Development Efforts

    Less than 20 miles downriver from the GIFT site, the future prosperity of Indian society is less assured. In the Chamanpura area of Ahmedabad, Gujarat’s largest city, sits the Gulbarg Society, a Muslim-majority neighborhood. In February 2002, during Modi’s first term as governor of Gujarat, the Gulbarg Society was the site of one of the two largest massacres in a wave of statewide violence that killed more than 1,000 civilians over the course of three months.