As purveyors of early warning, we have to choose a definition in order to conduct and describe our risk assessments. If we aren’t very specific about what we’re attempting to foresee, we can’t build sound statistical models, and we can’t properly direct the attention of the experts in our opinion pool or assess the accuracy of their forecasts.
In examining the risk of state-led mass killing in Pakistan, the line between state and non-state actors is fuzzy, especially when it comes to perpetrators of mass violence against civilians. Rather than perpetrating violence themselves, Pakistani security forces—especially the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), the Pakistani intelligence services—use militant groups to advance political and territorial objectives inside Pakistan and in contested areas like the Indian-administered Kashmir region. Ongoing violent conflict, especially in Pakistan’s northwest Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), also contributes to increased risks of new mass killing.
On Monday, the United Nations issued a statement calling for the immediate end to an escalation of violence in the Central African Republic. Dozens were killed after the murder of a man in Bangui, with many fearing that this could mark a return to the sectarian violence that saw thousands killed since violence began in December 2013.
The chart below summarizes our Expert Opinion Pool’s current take on risks of new mass-killing episodes in countries about which we’ve asked them.
In the 1930s, the world watched as Nazi Germany forced its beleaguered Jewish population to leave their homes. The plight of Germany’s Jews engendered sympathy, but few countries opened their doors wider to admit more of the desperate refugees. While different in many respects, today the world—and Europe in particular—is facing the largest refugee crisis since World War II.
Holocaust survivor and Museum volunteer Margit Meissner urged listeners to transcend politics and create an effective response to the crisis in Syria.
“We fear we will be wiped out.” – Tun Khin, Rohingya human rights defender
In January, electoral disputes between Bangladesh’s two major political parties ignited a wave of political violence familiar to the country’s recent history. By the end of February, targeted attacks by supporters of the ruling Awami League (AL) and of the Bangladesh National Party (BNP), AL’s political opposition—as well as by Bangladeshi police and paramilitary forces throughout the country—against opposition protesters killed more than 100 civilians.
The chart below offers an overview of our opinion pool’s current take on risks of new mass-killing episodes in countries around the world. In contrast to our statistical risk assessments, which focus exclusively on state-led mass killings, these assessments cover all possible mass killings, state-led and non-state alike. Specifically, each question asks: “Before 1 January 2016, will there be a new episode of mass killing in [this country]?”
Find information on historical cases of genocide and other atrocities.
